UK Parliament to Investigate Climategate and Data Issues

Here in Australia there has been some questioning of the UN/IPCC/CRU Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming (CAGW) conjecture but for some reason, perhaps due to our geographic isolation, we have largely been quarantined by main stream media from the plethora of overseas reports promulgated in the media.

In western civilization (with the exception of Australia and possibly New Zealand) there is continuing and growing questioning of CAGW in the main stream media. We have seen leading CAGW players Prof Phil Jones of CRU fame being stood down and investigated and Prof Mann (of IPCC Hockey Stick fame) currently being investigated by Penn State University. Now the UK Parliament has seen fit to run its own investigation into Climategate and the CRU. For the terms of reference see link at WUWT which is reproduced in part here:

Terms of Reference

The Science and Technology Committee today announces an inquiry into the unauthorised publication of data, emails and documents relating to the work of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia (UEA). The Committee has agreed to examine and invite written submissions on three questions:

—What are the implications of the disclosures for the integrity of scientific research?
—Are the terms of reference and scope of the Independent Review announced on 3 December 2009 by UEA adequate (see below)?
—How independent are the other two international data sets?
The Committee intends to hold an oral evidence session in March 2010.

...

The Independent Review will:

1. Examine the hacked e-mail exchanges, other relevant e-mail exchanges and any other information held at CRU to determine whether there is any evidence of the manipulation or suppression of data which is at odds with acceptable scientific practice and may therefore call into question any of the research outcomes.

2. Review CRU’s policies and practices for acquiring, assembling, subjecting to peer review and disseminating data and research findings, and their compliance or otherwise with best scientific practice.

3. Review CRU’s compliance or otherwise with the University’s policies and practices regarding requests under the Freedom of Information Act (‘the FOIA’) and the Environmental Information Regulations (‘the EIR’) for the release of data.

4. Review and make recommendations as to the appropriate management, governance and security structures for CRU and the security, integrity and release of the data it holds .

The deadline for submissions is tight. The UK Parliament’s Science and Technology Committee asks for written submissions no later than Noon 10 February 2010 (I assume that is GMT) and any submissions must be in Microsoft Word 2003 format (ok no jokes as to why the Science and Technology Committee demands submissions to be made using software technology that is 7 years out of date).

What passes for reasoned debate here in Australia by comparison? Let us look at our beloved Prime Minister Kevin Rudd who in one of his brief stop overs here in Australia had this to say at a speech at the Lowy Institute on 6 November 2009 before jetting off again in a cloud of thousands of tonnes of CO2 emissions:

“Climate change deniers are small in number, but they are too dangerous to be ignored.”

...

“This brigade of donothing climate change skeptics are dangerous because if they succeed, then it is all of us who will suffer.”

He rambles on with a peer reviewed comparison of his pet theory to a game of cards.

“You've got to know when to fold 'em and for the skeptics, that time has come.

The Government I lead will act.”

Thanks Kevin for classifying those Australians that don't agree with your views as dangerous. Perhaps, Kevin, all these dangerous people should be rounded up and interred in government re-education "facilities". I hate to point this out Kevin but you are talking about 54% of Australians according to the latest Gallop Poll research.

Yes, our Idiot In Chief will act. Fast foward one month to Copenhagen. And how did that all turn out for Kevin and his 114 man invasion force delegation? Oh yes, 3 pages of nonsense from Copenhagen in the form of an Accord (download the accord here), no deadlines, nothing binding, and no one even silly enough to sign it before the caviar had run out and everyone deserted Norway for the next Big Conference. Thank God you’re not a general leading an army. If you were I would humbly suggest that your greatest danger would be from your troops behind you and not the ones in front if your same withering display of logic was presented to them.

It makes sense to Kevin to act before he even knows the question even if it means “acting” in totally the wrong direction, such is the state of leadership in Australia. Kevin Rudd, you are truly Australia’s Greatest Living Actor.

That bunch of dangerous right wing conservative radicals Kev, the UK Labour led Parliament, on the other hand obviously doesn’t assume that the debate is so clear cut and instead is conducting an inquiry. No chance of that happening here with Kevin at the tiller.

Kev, how about acting now to pay back the massive debt you and you alone have inflicted upon we Australians,

and our children,

and our grandchildren (these last two lines were lifted from Kevin's landmark Lowy speech so I thought it appropriate to reuse them here - H/t Kev).

Act Kev. Please, act.

Impose the higher taxes necessary to solve your problem. Slash your government’s spending. Let’s see you do that without your massive Bait and Switch Tax Scheme. Then take it to an election. And please, stop your ridiculous attempt at blaming your indebtedness on former Prime Minister John Howard who left this country massively in funds – you are just embarrassing yourself. It is called responsibility Kev. Look it up in your Cantonese-English dictionary. I am sure it will be in there somewhere. See also “the buck stops here”.

[UPDATE: The Dawg gets a mention on the SPPI blog.]

UAH Complete 25 Satellite Series Dec 2009

Here is the complete UAH satellite temperature anomaly series for various regions of the globe ranging from Global to North Polar to South Polar that I have prepared. Note that I have retained the same scale on all plots so a viewer can get a reasonable comparison of all regions although in order to retain detail of much of the data it results in plots of some regions being off scale.

[UPDATE: Welcome to new readers from www.euroekonom.cz. I hope you find this and upcoming future analysis useful.]

For the First Time Less Than Half of Australians Approve of Australia’s Proposed CPRS

For the first time less than half of Australians (46%, down 4% since November)approve of Australia’s proposed CPRS

Now 31% (up 1%) say “Concerns are exaggerated” about Global Warming

Now only 46% (down 4% since November 11/12, 2009) of Australians approve of the Government’s proposed carbon emissions trading scheme when asked “In December the Government's carbon emissions trading scheme was defeated in Parliament. The Rudd Government has pledged to reintroduce the legislation, known as the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme, to Federal Parliament in February 2010. Do you approve or disapprove of this legislation?” according to a special telephone Roy Morgan survey conducted over the last two nights (January 13/14, 2010).

CSIRO Backing Off

Jury out whether climate change is driving Tasmania's drought: CSIRO

AUSTRALIA'S peak science agency, the CSIRO, has backed away from attributing a decade of drought in Tasmania to climate change, claiming ''the jury is still out'' on the science.

Barrier Reef still 'pristine', despite concerns: scientist

THE Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is in excellent shape - farming and other human activity are not killing the reef, according to James Cook University's reef scientist Dr Peter Ridd.

When are we going to wake up?

The past few months has been a frustrating time for the climate change industry. Earlier in the year they were on a roll and it looked like a global treaty agreement at Copenhagen in December was a done deal. The heady scent of unprecedented power and money was palpable.

Abbott's 'Green Army'

In Australia, this mythology of a natural ‘left-green’ alliance was forged in the early 1980s as the traditional communist parties disintegrated and their cadres scrambled for a way to re-assert the ideology of state socialism in Australian politics. A key event at the time was a visit to Australia of leading figures in the extremist Deep Ecology movement, including its intellectual founder, Arne Naess. Its manifesto called explicitly for a reduction of the human population by some 95% to around one hundred million people, living in a society pegged at pre-historic levels of economic activity and social organization.

Scientists 'crying wolf' over coral

A SENIOR marine researcher has accused Australian scientists of "crying wolf" over the threat of climate change to the Great Barrier Reef, exposing deep division about its vulnerability.

Peter Ridd's rejection of the consensus position that the reef is doomed unless greenhouse emissions are checked comes as new research on the Keppel group, hugging Queensland's central coast, reveals its resilience after coral bleaching. Professor Ridd, a physicist with Townsville's James Cook University who has spent 25 years investigating the impact of coastal runoff and other problems for the reef, challenged the widely accepted notion that coral bleaching would wipe it out if climate change continued to increase sea surface temperatures. Instead of dying, the reef could expand south towards Brisbane as waters below it became warmer and more tolerable for corals, he said.

Reduced Emission Sheep May Hold Key To Global Warming in Australia

Vital studies into the menace of burping and farting sheep are being carried out in Australia and may hold the key to saving the world from catastrophic climate change. Scientists in Australia are measuring sheep burps by enclosing sheep in containers and counting and measuring their deadly burps. Presumably the scientists are standing outside the container while all this gassing is going on. Similar studies investigating farting cattle have also been carried out.

It is suprising that New Zealand doesn't have the jump on Australia on scientific investigations into sheep burping but obviously they are content to fiddle while Rome burns. Telephone calls placed with the office of Penny Wong, Australia's Minister for Changing the Climate, questioning whether a cardigan tax is being considered for the next budget have not been returned.

Although no deaths have been directly linked in humans to a burping sheep or farting bull, excessive out gassing by these noxious yet delicious animals may contribute to the likelihood of the planet erupting in catastrophic global warming/climate change/extreme weather.

Scientists hope to produce a strain of sheep that burps and farts less and will be essential to Australia’s future agricultural well being. A CSIRO map of total emissions from burping and farting Australian livestock produced in 2000 by Australia’s peak science body, the CSIRO, is reproduced below.

This vital research follows amazing studies by Australia’s CSIRO into termite out gassing. Termites are another species emitting gases contributing to worldwide greenhouse emissions so it is essential we measure the emission output of termites. I couldn’t find a map of termite farts but I will be sure to link to it when such a document becomes available.

Emmissions from Australian Livestock - CSIRO 2000

Now that is what I call bang for our scientific buck.

UAH Temperature Anomaly Series Dec 2009

Continuing with data plots using "R" I have written a program to automatically download the latest satellite temperature data from UAH, perform some statistical analysis and plot the results. The output follows.

Note that the red linear trend line is fitted for illustrative purposes only as a straight line plot is a very poor representation of the variability of the data (R2 coefficient is very low). The fitted least squares straight line regression is used to calculate the decadal trend in the temperature anomaly only to enable us to make comparisons between the various areas plotted.

As expected it is immediately obvious that the temperature anomaly is greatest in the northern hemisphere and much less in the tropics and southern hemisphere. Also noted is that the variability of the temperature data is greatest in the tropics. The temperature globally and in all regions plotted has been trending down since at least 1998.

The blue line is LOESS smoothing with q = 0.25.

Further analysis will follow as we develop this series.

If you would like the actual R code that I wrote to produce these graphs please feel free to ask and I will email it to you.

Extreme Weather linked to Demonic Powers

In today's Australian newspaper Frank Furedi looks at global warming climate change extreme weather and witchcraft.

Frank Furedi, Professor of sociology at the University of Kent

Throughout history people have sought to blame unusual climatic conditions on demonic forces. What the association of witchcraft with weather-making accomplished was to mobilise people's fears against the evil forces of heretics and non-believers. Scaremongering about witchcraft promoted the idea that its demonic powers could literally dominate nature. Father Friedrich Spee, a Jesuit critic of witch-hunting, noted sarcastically that "God and nature no longer do anything; witches, everything". But such beliefs were no joke. A late winter in the province of Treves in the 15th century led to more than 100 people being burned at the stake.

See the full article in the Australian.

Clouds Dominate CO2 as a Climate Driver Since 2000: Dr Roy Spencer

Dr Spencer has posted a summary of how the satellite-observed variations in Earth’s radiative budget compare to that expected from increasing carbon dioxide on his website. Dr Spencer is a climatologist and former NASA scientist who is widely published.

He compares his satellite data to the IPCC view of inferred forcing assuming high climate sensitivity. His article specifically addresses the zero net warming recorded in the last decade. AGW models cannot explain this lack of warming. Spencer concludes his analysis as follows:

What this Might Mean for Global Warming

The main point I am making here is that, no matter whether you assume the climate system is sensitive or insensitive, our best satellite measurements suggest that the climate system is perfectly capable of causing internally-generated radiative forcing larger than the “external” forcing due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Low cloud variations are the most likely source of this internal radiative forcing. It should be remembered that the satellite data are actually measured, whereas the CO2 forcing (red lines in the above graphs) is so small that it can only be computed theoretically.

The satellite observed trend toward less energy loss (or, if you prefer, more energy gain) is interesting since there was no net warming observed during this time. How could this be? Well, the satellite observed trend must be due to forcing only since there was no warming or cooling trend during this period for feedback to act upon. And the lack of warming from this substantial trend in the forcing suggests an insensitive climate system. If one additionally entertains the possibility that there is still considerable “warming still in the pipeline” left from increasing CO2, as NASA’s Jim Hansen claims, then the need for some natural cooling mechanism to offset and thus produce no net warming becomes even stronger. Either that, or the climate system is so insensitive to increasing CO2 that there is essentially no warming left in the pipeline to be realized. (The less sensitive the climate system, the faster it reaches equilibrium when forced with a radiative imbalance.)

Any way you look at it, the evidence for internally-forced climate change is pretty clear. Based upon this satellite evidence alone, I do not see how the IPCC can continue to ignore internally-forced variations in the climate system. The evidence for its existence is there for all to see, and in my opinion, the IPCC’s lack of diagnostic skill in this matter verges on scientific malpractice.

Note the concluding paragraph. Just keep repeating “the science is settled”. As Spencer and many other qualified and highly respected scientists are showing, the science is never settled. When you hear a statement being made like that one needs to be instantly cautious and, dare I say it, skeptical.

Refer to Dr Spencer's site for the full article.

Air Vent Guest Post by Dr Ismail Bhat

An excellent article by Dr. Ismail Bhat appears over on Air Vent. Dr. Bhat raises some important issues with respect to the politicisation of science. I recommend this article.

Guest post from Dr. Ismail Bhat, Professor & Head of Department of Geology & Geophysics at University of Kashmir. Dr. Bhat is yet another professional scientist with the understanding and credentials to challenge the consensus. This time on sea level rise, he rightly compares how the current political situation has handled prominent and reasoned disagreement to the inquisition of Galileo by the Romans. How far have we really come since Galileo’s time?
———–

Dr. Nils-Axel Mörner: the Galileo of our “scientific age”

M. I. Bhat

E-mail: bhatmi@hotmail.com

Science has taken a leap four centuries back to dark age when science lost to theology. Then the butt of condemnation and punishment were just two souls – Bruno and, the better remembered, Galileo. Now it is a huge horde of scientists from across the planet, who dare challenge the mainstream belief in CO2-induced global warming or anthropogenically-induced global warming (AGW), that are being condemned with calls for punishment of these “traitors” for committing “high crimes against humanity,” “deserving Nuremberg-style trials,” ……… Reviling and calls for punishment are unending. If theology was settled then for a particular cosmological view, now it is “science is settled’ for AGW. Then it was cosmological data gathered through telescope versus theological view; now it is clean, hard core science versus manipulated science backed by political interests. Then it was Cardinal Bellarmine backed by Pope Clement VIII/Pope Paul V; now it is Dr. R. K. Pachauri backed by our political Pope, Mr. Banki Moon.

Hop on over to Air Vent to read the whole article.

I'll have a series of plots of the UHA lower troposphere data ready shortly updated to the end of December. I am just finalising my programming now.

Popular Technology.net: Global Cooling in 2009

A few (hundred) links to global cooling in the press for 2009.

Popular Technology.net: Global Cooling in 2009