Continuing with data plots using "R" I have written a program to automatically download the latest satellite temperature data from UAH, perform some statistical analysis and plot the results. The output follows.
Note that the red linear trend line is fitted for illustrative purposes only as a straight line plot is a very poor representation of the variability of the data (R2 coefficient is very low). The fitted least squares straight line regression is used to calculate the decadal trend in the temperature anomaly only to enable us to make comparisons between the various areas plotted.
As expected it is immediately obvious that the temperature anomaly is greatest in the northern hemisphere and much less in the tropics and southern hemisphere. Also noted is that the variability of the temperature data is greatest in the tropics. The temperature globally and in all regions plotted has been trending down since at least 1998.
The blue line is LOESS smoothing with q = 0.25.
Further analysis will follow as we develop this series.
If you would like the actual R code that I wrote to produce these graphs please feel free to ask and I will email it to you.
This blog is a about Anthropogenic Global Warming(AGW) which is global warming caused by the activities of man. The core issues are:
- Is the climate warming, - Is the warming outside of historic norms - Is it caused by anthropogenic CO2 - Will it result in global disaster as the IPCC insists
Only the first has been satisfactorily answered in part and the qualification is that the data upon which the IPCC claims are based has not been made available for full scrutiny as yet. The average terrestrial land temperature experienced slight warming this century. In some regions such as Antarctica it has cooled. The earth has been recovering from the Little Ice Age since 1650 (see Akasofu 2007 & 2009) which is one reason this warming trend is expected. It appears that this is not outside of historic norms (see Medieval Warm Period) and that the IPCC and some scientists have attempted to downplay the Medieval Warm Period and the effects of the Little Ice Age. The later two issues are not settled despite UN and government spin towards the contrary. For some excellent background from a real climatologist not implicated in the recent CRU revelations see the links to Dr Roy Spencer's blog below who discusses these issues as a professional.
Australia Joins China and Iran in Net Censorship - Nanny State Cometh
Pearls of Wisdom & Otherwise
Glenn Reynolds (USA - Instapundit.com): "I'll believe its a crisis when the people who tell me it's a crisis start acting like it's a crisis."
Nick himself (Counting Cats in Zanzibar blog): "Is it just me or has the spam-trade been entirely taken-over by performance poets on Arts-Council grants?"
Dr. Kiminori Itoh (Phd UN IPCC Scientist Award-winning environmental physical chemist): "When people know what the truth is the will feel deceived by science and scientists."
Dr. Stephen Schneider (Stanford professor of climatology, Lead author on many IPCC reports, in an interview with Discover Magazine 1989): "We have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we may have. Each of us has to decide what the right balance is between being effective and being honest."
Former US Vice President Al Gore (now, chairman and co-founder of Generation Investment Management- a London-based business that sells carbon credits, in an interview with Grist Magazine 9 May 2006 re his book An Inconvenient Truth) "Nobody is interested in solutions if they don't think there's a problem. Given that starting point, I believe it is appropriate to have an over-representation of factual presentations on how dangerous (global warming) is, as a predicate for opening up the audience to listen to what the solutions are..."
New readers may be interested to peruse two of my earlier posts concerning the Fear of Global Cooling which was popular in the late 1970's. I have posted a copy of a Newsweek article together with comments here and here.