Sunday, December 6, 2009

Australia's Chief Scientist predicts Global Disaster within 5 years

Let us look at a few of the predictions of climate alarmists and see how they actually stack up. To get the ball rolling we'll kick off with Prof Penny Stack. Now Penny Stack is not just any old garden variety scientist, she is Australia's Chief Scientist and that means her crystal balling must be right. I mean if she is wrong that means all lesser clergy have no chance. We'll keep track of Penny's prediction right here on The Dog Ate my Data and show her to be the genius she is to be able to forsee the future.

So what is Penny's prediction? "The planet has just 5 years to avoid disastrous global warming" (Source: Herald Sun, 4 Dec 2009). She made that prediction on 4 Dec 2009 so that means that by 4 Dec 2014 you my dear reader will be suffering disasterous global warming along with the rest of the planet and its inhabitants.

Note: Now those skeptics amongst you may already have picked up that, following Prof Phil "hide the decline" Jones et al (1996), I have made the data fit the model in so far as the nifty little count down timer shown above. You see there are not enough digits to show more than 999 days so until sometime in 2011 the number of days to go until the earth spontaneously combusts will be truncated in the "tens" column - at least until I find a better countdown timer. Lets not worry too much about that however as, in the words of one famous climate scientist "all the errors will cancel themselves out" and it would be a "travesty" that I can't display my nifty timer just because it is going to be BS until 2011. I'm not sure if that methodology came from a peer reviewed article so care should be exercised in its use.

I was thinking of having children in the next couple of years. Would it be irresponsible of me to bring children into the world when they face certain disaster within a few years of their birth? I might email Penny and ask her advice as my wife is getting clucky. I might even sell my house and quite my job and travel around while I can as 5 years is not a long time to enjoy myself before disaster strikes!

Well 2 days have passed since Penny predicted the end of the world as we know it, it is already the 6 December as I write this, and the earth is not a disaster yet. I predict that on 4 December 2014 as people are planning their Christmas shopping it will be business as usual for the rest of us while Penny is hiding out in her survival bunker with a few thousand cans of beans.
In the article referenced above in the Herald Sun Penny also said "When scientists talk about global warming, they are referring to the temperature of the whole earth and most of the heat is stored in the oceans, which have not cooled in 10 years." Unfortunately she appears to have overlooked this:

See here for more information.

Let's recap - the models Penny Stack relies on cannot explain the current cooling since 1998 whilst CO2 in the atmosphere continues to grow and it looks as if the science isn't exactly settled on her hypothesis that ocean heat has increased according to the above paper. Perhaps her professional judgement with respect to her prediction that the world will be a global disaster from AGW by 2014 will be accurate. Time will tell, and we don't have a very long wait to find out. Thanks to the blog of Andrew Bolt for the heads up.

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