Thursday, December 17, 2009

Dr Roy Spencer Discusses Cloud feedback Model at AGU Conference

Dr Spencer is a former NASA scientist and currently is the principle research scientist in UAHuntsville’s Earth System Science Center. Dr. Spencer’s work with NASA continues as the U.S. Science Team leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer flying on NASA’s Aqua satellite. If Dr. Spencer is right then the climate models used by the IPCC to predict disastrous man made global warming are wrong. It concerns me that his simple questions remain unanswered and yet governments continue to push for trillions of dollars in additional tax upon their citizens based on perhaps flawed models.
There seems to be great reluctance to consider the possibility that these computerized prophets of doom, which have required so many scientists and so much money and so many years to develop, could be wrong. I come along with an extremely simple climate model that explains the behavior of the satellite data in details that are beyond even what has been done with the complex climate models…and then the more complex models are STILL believed because…well…they’re more complex.

Besides, since my simple model would predict very little manmade global warming, it must be wrong. After all, we know that manmade global warming is a huge problem. All of the experts agree on that. Just ask Al Gore and the mainstream news media.”

“I am arguing that we can’t measure feedbacks the way people have been trying to do it. The climate modelers see from satellite data that warm years have fewer clouds, then assume that the warmth caused the clouds to dissipate. If this is true, it would be positive feedback and could lead to strong global warming. This is the way their models are programmed to behave. My question to them was, ‘How do you know it wasn’t fewer clouds that caused the warm years, rather than the other way around?’ It turns out they didn’t know. They couldn’t answer that question.

What we have found is that cloud cover variations causing temperature changes dominate the satellite record, and give the illusion of positive feedback.

Using satellite observations interpreted with a simple model, Spencer’s data support negative feedback (or cooling) better than they support positive feedback.

This critical component in global warming theory – cloud feedback – is impossible to measure directly in the real climate system. We haven’t figured out a good way to separate cause and effect, so we can’t measure cloud feedback directly. And if we don’t know what the feedbacks are, we are just guessing at how much impact humans will have on climate change.

I’m trying to spread the word: Let’s go back to basics and look at what we can and cannot do with measurements of the real climate system to validate both climate models and their predictions.”

Read more about Dr Spencer’s ongoing research on his web site.

Obviously Dr Spencer does not consider that “the science is settled”.

What is more Dr. Spencer seems to be adopting a very measured and responsible approach by recommending that basic metrics be established for validating models. Now that's not something you will see every day from the Hockey Team scientists.

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